When analyzing QB statistics, wins are often viewed on a macro-level. Many things can happen in a single game, but overall, wins are a good measure of an individual QB’s overall performance. In this article, we will look at CMP%, CMP%-A, and EPA-A as more meaningful individual QB stats. These three statistics are more stable and reflect a quarterback’s performance far better than either the passer rating or the EPA.
QBR is a more complete and meaningful alternative to the passer rating
The NFL has used the passer rating for years, but the QBR is a more complete measure of a quarterback’s skill set. According to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group, the QBR measures a quarterback’s overall contribution to the team’s success during a game, rather than just his passing ability. QBR also accounts for non-pass related skills.
In comparison to the traditional passer rating, QBR takes into account multiple factors, including the number of dropped passes and the number of rushing yards. It also includes a Clutch Index, which assigns more weight to plays that come at crucial moments during the game. This metric is more comprehensive and meaningful than its predecessor. Its shortcomings are more easily explained by the comparison of QBR with EPA, but there are still several problems with the traditional pass rating.
QBR is better for evaluating current play. The QBR adjusts for context and opponent. Throwing for 200 yards against the best defense is much more impressive than throwing for 400 yards against the worst. In addition, QBR is more accurate than EPA, which is the same. Moreover, a QBR is more useful for predicting future play. But what makes QBR better than EPA?
The QBR is a more complete and meaningful substitute for the passer rating in football. The QBR is based on 60,000 plays and assigns credit or blame to a quarterback for every play. This means that a quarterback’s QBR can increase or decrease by up to 20 points depending on whether the play was a screen pass or a deep ball. A team should also discount QBR during garbage time and adjust the stat accordingly.
CMP% is the most stable QB stat in football
In order to get an accurate representation of an individual quarterback’s performance, it is necessary to calculate CMP%. CMP% stands for completion percentage plus. The exact league average value is 100. So, if a QB’s completion percentage is 60%, he would have a CMP+ of 100. If his completion percentage is 50/60, he would have a CMP+ of 0.83, and if his completion percentage is seventy percent, he would have a CMP of 117.
Although CMP% is not the only individual QB stat, it is the most stable and has little correlation with win%. This is because it is based on a more comprehensive set of plays, including more plays than the other individual QB stats. This makes it a better way to evaluate a QB’s impact on a team’s chances than stand-alone metrics.
A quarterback’s touchdown to interception ratio is another useful metric. It shows how many touchdowns he throws compared to interceptions. In 2012, only Aaron Rodgers had a touchdown-to-interception ratio higher than seven percent. By contrast, Smith has thrown just 4.5 touchdowns in every 100 attempts since 2011.
EPA is unstable
The EPA is a popular football stat, but its accuracy is limited by its small sample size. In addition to that, the EPA does not capture non-point benefits. As an example, rushing EPA ignores the positive effects of the running game on the passing game. A strong running game will slow the pass rush and improve a team’s ability to close out games. While the EPA can help predict how well a team will perform in a game, it is unreliable when applied to individual players.
In 2018, the Green Bay Packers’ offensive EPA per start was 7.9. Since 2016, that number has dropped significantly. In fact, their offense was as productive under Jones as it was with Brock Osweiler. The new coaching staff may change that. But for now, the Saints are at a low point in the league’s passing defense. Their opponents have lost 14 expected points through their runs. So, the Saints are at a high point in their run defense, but they rank just twenty-first in the NFL in passing defense.
QBR isn’t indicative of a quarterback’s performance
The QBR is a complicated proprietary statistic that calculates a quarterback’s performance by adding expected points to a quarterback’s total play yardage. As it turns out, quarterbacks have a lot more playing time than average and it is impossible to assign 100% credit to each player on each side of the football. The question is whether QBR is an accurate measure of a quarterback’s performance or not.
The traditional QB rating is a statistical abomination. It ignores certain things and double counts others. It is akin to rating cars with a formula. Many critics of the QBR blindly accept these goofy stats. Some claim that ESPN is behind this measure. In fact, it’s a breakdown of a quarterback’s performance. It doesn’t consider rushing yards or sacks.
The EPA is an easier metric to interpret. It takes into account the passing statistics of the quarterback but does not consider other significant statistics. EPA tries to eliminate factors that are beyond the control of a quarterback. It also adjusts for the situational context with the use of “EPA” (expected points added per play).
To sum up: the QBR does not tell the whole story. It’s not a surefire way to make money. It’s a good indicator of which players are performing poorly and which ones aren’t. But it’s also a risky and unreliable tool. It’s important to understand QBR before relying on it. And, before you use QBR to make decisions about which players to bet on, remember that it’s not a magic pill.
Yards per attempt is more predictive
The Yards per Attempt statistic has several advantages. It’s a system-neutral metric, so the performance of one QB in a given season can’t be predicted by his overall performance. For example, a horizontal offense with a high completion percentage may have a low yards per attempt, but a poor quarterback will have a low Y/A average. Yards per attempt is a more accurate measure of an individual quarterback’s performance, because a quarterback cannot “game” the system and produce a high Y/A average. That’s why the top quarterbacks in the league finish near the league average in Y/A.
While yards per attempt has the strongest correlation to individual QB wins, the rushing game had the weakest correlation. The two main metrics for rushing yards are the total yards gained on each carry and yards per attempt. Both are highly correlated with wins, but yards per attempt is more predictive than yards per play. In fact, yards per attempt can be as important as yards per play. So how do we get the best information?
The first row shows the league average from the 2011 season. By looking at yards per attempt, we can see that the top five quarterbacks also had the highest touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brady was eighth on that list. However, McCown pointed out that yards per attempt does not include sacks or touchdowns. This statistic is largely a function of offensive schemes. That means that a quarterback with a higher yards per attempt will win more games.
A higher EPA correlates with better performance on optimal plays. However, yards per attempt is not always correlated with individual QB wins. EPA is not as accurate as yards per attempt when quarterbacks fail to execute optimally on a particular play. QB execution correlates with the EPA in the most instances. If a quarterback is able to produce enough offense to win games, his total performance will be the strongest metric.
If you’re looking for the most Superbowl rings in the NFL, look no further than your backup quarterback. While you may not play a significant role for the entire NFL season, you’re still a valuable member of the team. The Super Bowl is the highest honor for NFL players, and backup quarterbacks get their fair share of it. In addition to being rewarded with a ring, backups get postseason pay, and it’s equally shared among starters, backups, and injured players.
Steve Young
With six Superbowl rings to his name, Young ranks fourth all-time among backup quarterbacks. He is a two-time NFL MVP and has earned seven Pro Bowl selections. His 96.8 passer rating ranks seventh all-time and he ranked fifth in the NFL in rushing yards in 2000. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2005.
The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West Division in 2006, and Young’s performance was key to their victory. They jumped out to a 31-14 halftime lead against the Dallas Cowboys. Vince Young was able to complete two touchdown passes and add 47 yards on the ground. Young’s play won the team the division and the playoffs, and the 49ers went on to win the Super Bowl.
Young served as Montana’s backup for four seasons, but in 1998 was thrust into the starting lineup. In the opener against the Giants, Young suffered a concussion and was replaced by Bono, who threw two touchdown passes. In the next game against the Vikings, Young took the reigns after Montana was injured. Although the 49ers lost the game 34-31, Young’s performance was still impressive. Young completed twelve of seventeen passes for 158 yards, threw one interception, and led the team in rushing with 72 yards.
Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Hasselbeck is the most decorated backup quarterback in NFL history. In 2006, he was drafted as a sixth-round pick by the Seahawks. After his rookie season, he spent the next two seasons backing up Brett Favre. Favre spent those two seasons in Green Bay under the tutelage of Mike Holmgren, who was the offensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers when Joe Montana won two MVPs. Hasselbeck was then hand-picked by Mike Holmgren to start for the Seahawks in 2007, and he has never looked back.
Despite his age, Hasselbeck is still considered the best backup quarterback in the NFL. He mentors Andrew Luck, the starting quarterback of the Indianapolis Colts. Hasselbeck also has a proven record against new teams, with a 2-2 record against new teams. But is he good enough to be an effective starter? Not exactly. And how about his record against new teams?
Besides being the best backup quarterback, Hasselbeck has made a difference in the lives of many people through his charitable efforts. In 2010, Charlie Whitehurst saved the Seattle Seahawks season when Matt Hasselbeck was not healthy enough to start in a winner-take-all divisional game. Seattle needed a win to seal their playoff berth, so they went with Charlie Whitehurst. He went 22-of-36 for 192 yards and a touchdown, and the Seahawks came away with a 16-6 victory.
Garoppolo
The San Francisco 49ers are off to a rocky start this season, but Jimmy Garoppolo has already earned a few Super Bowl rings of his own. Despite his limited playing time as a starter, the 49ers have fought through a rash of injuries and are looking to build on that record this Sunday against the New England Patriots. During his time with the Patriots, he was impressed with the calmness Brady displayed in the face of pressure.
After being selected in the second round of the NFL Draft, Garoppolo began his professional career as a backup for the New England Patriots. During his four seasons in New England, he developed as a player under the shadow of Tom Brady. He finished the 2015 season with the Patriots, completing 63 percent of his passes for 690 yards and five touchdowns while throwing only three interceptions. As a backup, he won two games, but never had his era in New England materialize.
With his two Super Bowl rings, Jimmy Garoppolo is the only active backup quarterback with two Super Bowl rings. He won both Super Bowls while playing for the New England Patriots under Bill Belichick. Had the 49ers won Super Bowl LIV, Garoppolo could have earned three rings, but they were upset by the Kansas City Chiefs and ended up losing 20-31.
Earl Morrall
Before Foles blew up the Eagles’ hopes in the AFC Championship, Morrall helped the Dolphins win two Super Bowls. In 1972, he led the Dolphins to a perfect season. He died on April 25 from Parkinson’s disease. During his 21 years in the NFL, Morrall played for six teams and was a trusted backup on five Hall of Fame teams.
Earl Morrall’s three Superbowl rings are a testament to his ability to make a winning comeback despite facing the ultimate pressure. While he began his career as a backup for Johnny Unitas, Morrall eventually took over the role midway through the 1970 Super Bowl. He was also Bob Griese’s backup in Miami for two consecutive championships, in 1972 and 1973. David Carr was the most sacked quarterback in a season, with a total of 109. The fifth-round pick from 2014 lasted five seasons before retiring abruptly.
Born in 1934, Morrall was a star athlete at Michigan State and led the Spartans to two Rose Bowl victories. He also starred in the baseball team and played third base. While in the NFL, Morrall was a backup quarterback for four teams and started one. In his autobiography, he revealed that he had been a “super sub” for several years and had given up on his career’s high points.
Brian Griese
The most impressive accomplishment for a backup NFL quarterback is winning the Super Bowl. Brian Griese has the most Superbowl rings of any backup quarterback, and that is a pretty impressive accomplishment. He started his career as a third-stringer behind John Elway and Bubby Brister in Denver. He ended up winning a Super Bowl and earning his first Pro Bowl invite. In addition to his NFL career, Griese has also had success off the field. He’s now in the broadcast booth for Monday Night Football.
In college, Griese was a teammate of Brady. They played together for three years and were teammates at Michigan. While he wasn’t a star quarterback like Brady, Griese was a solid starter for his team. He was criticized a lot during his career, but he did win the Super Bowl with the Broncos in 1998.
Another player with the most Superbowl rings is Bill Walsh, who started for the Bears in 1994. He replaced the injured Erik Kramer, and led the team to the playoffs. In a wild-card-round win over the Vikings, he threw two touchdowns. However, Kramer eventually took over the starting job. A record he shares with Griese is the most first-named backup NFL QB.
Brock Osweiler
After a solid first season as a backup quarterback with the Houston Texans and a guaranteed $37 million contract, Brock Osweiler became a star-in-waiting. His performance in a limited sample size made him the perfect distillation of post-Moneyball quarterback evaluations. He was selected one full round before Russell Wilson and received two more opportunities after a third-round trade.
In 2015, Osweiler was a key part of the Broncos’ super bowl run after he took over for Peyton Manning. Afterwards, Osweiler was positioned as the team’s next franchise QB. When the NFL free agency period began, he said he wanted to stay in Denver. In a recent interview, he was asked what he wanted from life without football.
Despite the criticism that followed his success in Houston, Osweiler is an unlikely Superbowl hero. He has more rings than any other backup quarterback in the history of the NFL. And he’s a Texans fan. He even promised Blake a pink car. And he’s kept his word. While the Houston Texans may have drafted him to be their franchise QB, Brock Osweiler is the only backup quarterback to win more Superbowls than any other player.
Sammy Baugh
In his storied career, Sammy Baugh played at three different positions for the Washington Redskins, including quarterback and cornerback. He also played special teams and punt and kickoff returns. His versatility as a player and his accuracy as a passer helped him lead the NFL in all three phases. While he played less games per season than some of his more famous peers, he deserves to be included among the best NFL quarterbacks of all time.
As a backup quarterback, Baugh was a great asset in the 1970s. He was a difficult tackler and was successful in the play-calling of John Madden’s offense. His completion percentage of 66.7 percent in 1976 was the second highest total in the NFL. In 1978, he became the first backup QB with more Superbowl rings.
In addition to a Super Bowl ring, Earl Morrall has three championships. His three Super Bowl appearances started out as a backup for Johnny Unitas and ended midway through the game. Later, he became the backup to Joe Namath for the Miami Dolphins, and won two Super Bowls. His QBR is 72.2 and he is considered the best backup quarterback in NFL history.